The Unity Project shares analysis of the data on Change of Conditions (CoC) applications included in the UK Visa & Immigration Transparency Data, which is published quarterly. This briefing as usual covers application numbers, decision-making and processing times.
Decline in applications
- In Q1 2026, 702 CoC applications were submitted, a near all-time low.
Q1 2026 recorded 702 applications, the lowest quarterly figure since Q3 2017, when just 363 were submitted. This continues a decline we’ve highlighted in previous analyses. Submissions fell approximately by 33% compared to Q1 2025 (1,044 applications as per the latest release).
The number of applications submitted has been declining steadily since Q2 of 2025. This suggests that the government’s so-called ‘Earned Settlement’ proposals, which were first trailed in the Immigration White Paper in May 2025, may be a factor contributing to the decline in applications in Q4 2025. The proposals seek to increase the standard qualifying period for permanent residence from five to ten years and penalise people for accessing welfare benefits, further prolonging their path to settlement. This may discourage some potential eligible applicants from applying for a CoC, although further evidence would be needed to establish whether the proposals have directly affected application numbers.
Revision of figures
- In line with previous data releases, the Home Office continues to update and revise earlier figures of applications submitted.
A further issue we have been monitoring is the ongoing revision of historic application numbers. With each data release, previous quarterly figures change, making it difficult to track trends accurately. The Q1 2026 data release includes revisions dating back to Q1 2021.
We raised this issue with the NRPF Forum in March 2026 and were advised that the inaccuracies were due to the transition to the ATLAS caseworking system, though no timeframe has been provided for when these issues will be resolved.
These concerns reflect wider systemic problems within the Home Office. Last week the Committee of Public Accounts published their report on the asylum system, finding that there is no single, reliable view of cases across the system, with data spread across multiple systems, spreadsheets and local records. Officials were reportedly unable to provide key figures with confidence, and arrangements for assuring data quality were unclear. The Committee recommended the Home Office undertake a system-wide data improvement plan.
The frequent CoC data revisions are a further illustration of why such a plan is urgently needed.
Decision-making times and backlog
- Of the 702 applications submitted in Q1 2026, 447 are still pending.
In Q1 2026, 702 applications were submitted with 447, approximately 64%, still awaiting a decision.
A total of 1,038 decisions were made during Q1 2026, which includes applications from previous quarters. The Home Office processed applications at roughly 1.5 times (148%) the rate of new applications received, meaning it cleared more cases than came in, a positive sign. With fewer applications being submitted, this is to be expected. That being said it is encouraging to see the backlog being worked through and we hope the Home Office will continue to do so.
The Home Office reports a processing time of 34 days for Q1 2026. However, as we have noted in previous analyses, this figure is misleading and is likely to underestimate the actual waiting time experienced by applicants. Decision timeframes increase once pending applications are eventually processed. The most recent quarter with reliable data on the decision timeframe is Q3 2025. Over 98% of applications from this quarter have now been processed, with an average decision time of 93 days. This is far too long – we have reported in previous analyses that a waiting time over two months may be unlawful and could potentially be challenged. However it is a notable improvement from the extremely slow decision times recorded in 2024, which peaked at 151 days in Q3 – 5 months.
The Home Office introduced a new prioritisation process in February 2026, midway through the period covered by this quarter’s data. This follows a 2024 High Court judgement, which found that processing times of two to four months were unacceptable for people facing destitution and called for a practical and effective prioritisation process. We welcome the Home Office’s attempts to address issues with decision times. If the new system is effective in addressing that we would expect to see a reduction in decision times over the coming quarters.
The acceptance rate for Q1 2026 stands at 72%. However, similarly to the processing time, this initial figure is misleading and typically falls once more applications are processed. Our data puts the acceptance rate at around 57%, a 15 percentage point drop from Home Office figures.
Demographics
Age trends remain broadly consistent with previous quarters. The 31–40 and 41–50 age brackets continue to account for the highest proportion of submissions, with 176 and 166 applications respectively. We also continue to observe a gradual rise in older applicants. Applicants aged 50+ accounted for 21% of submissions in this quarter, up from 8% in both 2020 and 2021, 12% in 2022, 13% in 2023, 16% in 2024 and 19% in 2025. The 60+ bracket shows a similar trajectory, rising from 3% in 2021, with a slight drop to 2% in 2022, before rising again to 6% in 2023, 8% in 2024, 9% in 2025 and 10% in 2026 (all figures refer to the first quarter of each year).