Q3 (July to September) 2025
The Unity Project shares analysis of the data on Change of Conditions (CoC) applications included in the UK Visa & Immigration Transparency Data, which is published quarterly.
This briefing covers ongoing trends in applications, decisions and the backlog for Q3 2025.
Decline in Applications
- In Q3 2025, 760 applications were submitted – the lowest number of applications since Q1 2022.
- The Home Office continues to retrospectively change the number of applications it reports were submitted.
760 applications submitted is a notable decrease from the previous quarter, with the Home Office’s latest data release revising Q2 2025 submissions to 928. In our previous analysis of Q2 2025, we had reported 883 submissions based on the data release at that time. In comparison to the same period in 2024, 932 applications were submitted. The number of applications submitted in this quarter is the lowest it has been since 745 applications were recorded in Q1 2022. The decline in applications occurred prior to the announcement of the government’s Earned Settlement consultation in November 2025. It will be interesting to see whether the consultation impacts submissions over the coming quarters.
The Home Office continues to change historic figures for applications submitted with each data release, which complicates trend analysis. However, we try to monitor these changes closely. Last quarter, we reported raising these concerns about discrepancies with the NRPF policy team at the Home Office. The Home Office informed us that some differences were due to the transition of data to the new ‘ATLAS’ data collection system and that: “The data remains provisional and subject to change. Quality assurance has been put in place.”
ATLAS is the Home Office’s digital caseworking system and was subject to controversy in 2024 when leaked internal documents revealed that thousands of people had their sensitive personal information and immigration statuses mixed up. The story prompted the Information Commissioner’s Office, the UK’s data protection watchdog, to launch an investigation into possible data breaches by the Home Office.
Decreasing CoC decisions and a growing backlog
- The Home Office reports making 793 decisions this quarter, a drop from 983 decisions in Q2 2025.
- 89% of applications submitted in Q3 are awaiting a decision.
- 965 applications are pending, demonstrating that the backlog is growing.
The number of decisions the Home Office is making is declining significantly. This quarter, 793 decisions were made, representing a notable decrease from 983 decisions in Q2 2025 and a substantial drop from 1,709 decisions in Q1 2025. In fact, this is the lowest number of decisions made since Q4 2024 when only 651 decisions were made. This trend is concerning. 89% of the applications submitted in Q3 2025 were still pending at the end of the quarter. This is in line with other recent data releases, going back to the start of 2024.
This of course affects the backlog, which remains high. The number of total applications submitted that were still pending at the end of Q3 2025 stands at 965. Last quarter, we reported a backlog of 935 applications. With fewer submissions made this quarter, we would have expected the Home Office to make some progress on reducing the backlog but that doesn’t appear to be the case. There is clearly an urgent need for the Home Office to boost capacity within the processing team to ensure that applicants are not left in prolonged and precarious situations without access to public funds.
As we do not have the full data for 2025, we cannot provide any analysis on the success rate. However, so far, only 1,405 applications in 2025 have been approved, reflecting a success rate of 59%. This indicates that applicants are facing a high risk of refusal. Based on previous data releases, we expect this number to decrease. We will have to wait until all applications have been processed before we are able to report more comprehensively on decision times and success rates for the entirety of 2025. In 2024, the success rate was 53% and we expect this to decline in 2025. However, this data will not be available to us until mid-2026.
Demographic trends
The number of applications from people under 18 has been steadily declining over the years. Applicants under the age of 18 are typically dependents of the main applicant. The latest Home Office data release reports that 65 applications from those under 18 were submitted for this quarter, the lowest figure recorded to date. This is a 17% decrease from 78 in Q2 2025 and a 56% decrease from 148 in Q1 2025.
Applicants aged over 60 account for approximately 9.5% of applications this quarter, with 70 applications submitted from this group. This is an increase compared to the same period in 2024, when applicants aged 60+ made up approximately 7.8% of applications. Elderly people are among the most vulnerable in society and that vulnerability is heightened when access to public funds is restricted. The increasing proportion of applications from this age group is therefore concerning.