The Unity Project shares analysis of the data on Change of Conditions (CoC) applications included in the UK Visa & Immigration Transparency Data, which is published quarterly.
In Tab ‘CoC_01’, two new columns have been added to the data releases in 2025, which relate to the CoC backlog: Total Decisions In Quarter and Total End of Quarter WIP [work in progress]. Otherwise, the data releases follow the same format as previously.
Applications somewhat down
- 883 applications were submitted in Q2 of 2025.
- The Home Office has also changed the number of applications it says were submitted over the previous 8 quarters from what it said in previous data releases.
In this data release, the Home Office changed the figures for applications received in each of the last eight quarters compared to what it had reported in previous data releases. (This has happened before, but the changes are more dramatic this time.) Overall, 66 historic applications have appeared which were not reported in previous data releases. This has knock-on effects on the rest of the data. We have written to the NRPF policy team at the Home Office to ask for clarification about the discrepancies and we are awaiting their response.
The CoC decision backlog
- The Home Office reports making 1,028 decisions this quarter. This is a concerning drop of over 40% from the previous quarter (when they made 1735 decisions).
- Because of the lower application submissions this quarter, the backlog has reduced slightly to 935 applications.
- Nearly 90% of applications made in Q2 have not yet been processed.
The backlog remains higher than at any point in the 4 years between Q3 of 2020 and Q2 of 2024. The number of pending applications never used to be much greater than half the number of applications submitted per quarter, usually around 500. It is currently 106% of the applications submitted in the last quarter. The Home Office will need to increase its decision making output back to the levels achieved in the previous quarter if it is to bring the number of pending applications down to normal levels.
Changing the historical data on application submissions (as outlined above) has fed through to the reported data on pending applications, making the backlog look less bad than previously indicated. The current data release states that at its peak, the backlog was 1,767 applications. In the last data release, the backlog peaked at 1,998.
Enormous decision delays in 2024
- 52 days – average decision time in 2023
- 115 days – average decision time in 2024
As we always say, published data on average decision times is misleading until all applications have been processed for the period in question. All applications from 2023 and 99.5% of applications from 2024 have been processed, demonstrating a whopping increase in decision times.
In the space of one year, the decision time more than doubled from nearly two months to nearly four months, at a time when the number of applications only slightly increased. We continue to think that a delay of over two months is unlawful and could be challenged by pre-action correspondence with reference to ASY & Ors v Home Office [2024] EWCA (see for example para 99 and 104, and the briefing here). Please contact us if you’d like support with this.
It remains to be seen whether decision times in 2025 will be significantly reduced. Data from Q1 of 2025 suggests it will be more than 63 days.
Low success rates in 2024
- 65% applications were granted in 2023.
- 53% of applications were granted in 2024.
- 63% of applications were granted in Q1 of 2025 (based on 85% applications having been processed).
We also now have enough information to review application success rates for the years 2023 and 2024. Again we see a dramatic decline in 2024. The early indications for Q1 of 2025 suggest the success rate will probably end up somewhere between the 2023 and 2024 rates.
For context, the applications that we submit at TUP are almost always successful, because we can assist applicants with the various evidential and technological barriers. We are also often contacted by people who have submitted their own applications and been unlawfully refused, which we eventually prove by assisting them to overturn these refusals. This gives us grounds to believe that nationwide many refusals result from poor decision-making or the overly complex application process.
Viewed together, these numbers paint a picture of a decision making crisis in 2024. While the number of CoC applications remained stable and the policy guidance did not alter significantly, decision making became much slower and harsher compared to previous years. As a result, thousands of people spent months in conditions of destitution while they waited for a response and many were ultimately refused access to public funds.