The Unity Project shares analysis of the data on Change of Conditions (CoC) applications included in the UK Visa & Immigration Transparency Data, which is published quarterly.
This quarter, we take a more in-depth look at the Home Office’s increasing decision timeframes and the growing backlog in Change of Conditions applications.
Applications continue to gradually increase
- 1046 applications were submitted in Q3 2024
- 3,979 CoC applications were submitted in the whole of 2024
- This indicates a gradual increase in applications over the past two years. In 2023, 3,527 CoC applications were made, and in 2022, 3,228 CoC applications were made.
Decision backlog
- 89% of applications made in Q4 remain pending at the time of release. This is similar to last quarter, when 92% of applications were pending.
- The Home Office has only granted 89 of the 1002 applications made in Q4 2024.
- There were 475 decisions in Q4, less than half the number of applications received.
- The backlog has increased by a third to 2,104 pending applications (up from 1,577 in the previous quarter).
- 1 application from Q4 2022 has now been waiting two years for a decision.
The Home Office was fairly successful in keeping the number of pending applications at around 500 from 2021 to mid 2023. A decrease in the number of decisions made in Q3 of 2023 prompted an increase in the backlog, but this was addressed with improved decision making the following quarter. However, decision making declined stubbornly throughout the first three quarters of 2024 and now sits significantly below the number of applications received, creating the large and growing backlog we have today.
Longer decision delays
Published data on average decision times is misleading due to the number of applications still pending. Each time the Home Office releases new data, it revises upwards the average decision time frames from the previous data release. This is because pending applications that have been sitting around for a long time are decided and then included in the new data.
It looks very likely that the average decision time for 2024 will eventually exceed 100 days.
| Quarter | Average days to decision at initial publication | Revised average days to decision as of Q4 2024 | % of applications still pending |
| Q1 2024 | 46 | 73 | 5% |
| Q2 2024 | 45 | 94 | 24% |
| Q3 2024 | 21 | 70 | 77% |
| Q4 2024 | 14 | – | 89% |
We think that a delay of over two months is unlawful and could be challenged by pre-action correspondence with reference to ASY & Ors v Home Office [2024] EWCA (see for example para 99 and 104, and the briefing here). Please contact us if you’d like support with this.
The enormous backlog means that it is not yet possible to infer the actual success rates for the most recent quarters – we will have to wait until the applications have been processed. However it is clear that success rates are continuing to trend downwards.
Increased international diversity of applicants
- The international diversity of applicants has increased noticeably since the Home Office started publishing data on CoC applicants.
- In 2018, the top 5 countries (Nigeria, Ghana, Jamaica, Pakistan, Bangladesh) accounted for 73% of applications. In 2024, the top 5 countries (Nigeria, Pakistan, Ghana, Bangladesh, India) only accounted for 48%.
- In 2018, there were applicants from 90 countries. By 2024, this had risen to 127 countries.