The Unity Project shares analysis of the data on Change of Conditions (CoC) applications included in the UK Visa & Immigration Transparency Data, which is published quarterly.
The data release for Q2 of 2024 is not pretty reading. Decision times and the number of pending applications continue to increase while the acceptance rate continues to fall.
936 applications were submitted in Q2 2024.
- This is the most applications submitted in a quarter since the tail end of the pandemic period (i.e. 2021 Q2). Since then, average submissions per quarter is 853.
- Application submissions have been very gradually trending up since 2022.
80% of applications made in the quarter are still pending.
- This continues the worrying increase in pending applications over the past year and is a new record.
954 applications are still pending – including 12 dating back to 2022.
54% of applications decided in 2024 have been accepted.
- We expect this rate to fall once pending applications have been processed – the 2024 Q1 acceptance rate fell by 10 percentage points in the Q2 data release.
- We therefore expect 2024 to end with the lowest annual rate on record (currently the lowest is 52% in 2018) and a significant drop since last year (67%).
59 days is the current average decision time for applications made in 2024.
- This is already on course to be the highest annual figure on record and will increase substantially once pending applications from recent quarters have been processed.
- Decision times have doubled since 2018.
- The Court of Appeal suggested earlier this year that two months is not an appropriate timescale for the CoC application. The updated average decision time for 2024 Q1 (63 days) exceeds that timescale.

The demographic composition of applicants is broadly in line with trends from previous quarters:
Age of applicants – the long run trend of CoC applicants getting older continues in 2024. The percentage of applicants who are 50+ is now 16%, compared to 6% in 2018.
Countries of origin – there is no significant change in the most common countries of origin of CoC applicants: in Q2 these were Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh, India and Ghana.*
Gender – the gender balance remains the same as it has been since the pandemic period, with around two thirds of applicants female.
*The ‘Notes’ tab states ‘Tables CoC_01 to CoC_07 include the data relating to people who apply to have the No Recourse to Public Funds (NRPF) condition lifted.’ Please note that the Home Office have confirmed: 1. The data does not include those on the BNO Hong Kong route (though the data does include applicants with the nationality ‘Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China’ or ‘British National (Overseas)’). 2. The data does include those on every other visa (e.g. skilled workers, students, etc), but the data on immigration status is not disaggregated.